Oil Declines After OPEC+ Agrees to Boost Production Into 2022

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Oil eased after OPEC+ agreed to boost production into 2022, resolving an internal dispute that had shaken the alliance.

Brent crude declined 0.5% after losing 2.6% last week, while West Texas Intermediate slipped. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will add 400,000 barrels a day each month from August until all its halted output has been revived. The deal also gives Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Russia higher baselines against which their output cuts are measured from May 2022.

Brent crude futures eased after OPEC+ agreed to boost output

The complex pact, announced at the weekend after a spat between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, gives traders a better view of how quickly the cartel will restore the 5.8 million barrels a day it’s still withholding, since making deep cuts last year in the initial stages of the pandemic. It also resolves longstanding grievances that tested the unity of the alliance.

After soaring 45% in the first half, Brent hit a turbulent patch this month. The bitter wrangle at OPEC+ spurred confusion among investors about the group’s plans for output just as the spread of the delta variant sowed concern about the potential impact of fresh outbreaks on demand. Still, with stockpiles being drawn down, market watchers including the International Energy Agency have said that additional barrels were needed to plug a projected shortfall.

While the OPEC+ agreement spans more than a year and covers millions of barrels of production, it remains a flexible arrangement. The alliance will continue to hold talks every month, including a review of the market in December. It could adjust the schedule if required, according to Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. The next gathering will be Sept. 1.

Prices:
  • Brent for September settlement was 0.5% lower at $73.25 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange at 6:53 a.m. in Singapore.
    • Earlier, prices lost as much as 1.4%.
  • WTI for August delivery fell 0.3% to $71.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent’s prompt time spread was little changed at 63 cents a barrel in backwardation, a bullish pattern with near-dated prices trading above those further out. That’s down from 74 cents a week ago.

The more infectious delta variant is still on the ascendant, especially among the unvaccinated, with some countries reimposing curbs. In Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam and Singapore are all dealing with outbreaks. Elsewhere, the U.K. on Saturday reported the most cases since January.

Oil traders will also be on alert in the coming days for Iran’s first crude export from outside the Persian Gulf and beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Republic plans to ship a cargo of crude from Jask in the Gulf of Oman, according to Vahid Maleki, director of the Jask Oil Terminal.

Related coverage:
  • Royal Dutch Shell Plc announced last year it would slash capacity by half at its biggest refinery. For Singapore, it marked a turning point in one of the most successful bets on fossil fuels in history.
  • OPEC and its allies will need to pay “a lot of attention” to Iran once U.S. sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil exports are eased, according to Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh.
  • Money managers cut their bullish Nymex WTI bets by 26,065 net-long positions to 381,491, the least bullish in seven weeks.