NEARLY 10M Americans have fallen behind on their rent, according to a recent survey by the Census Bureau. More than 4m renters say they are likely to be evicted in the next two months. For the moment, they can rest easy. On his first day as president, Joe Biden extended a temporary ban on evictions until the end of March, giving some breathing room to those with overdue payments—who, by one estimate, are four months past due and owe $5,600, on average. The eviction moratorium, first ordered by Donald Trump in September, has helped millions of Americans experiencing financial hardship as a result of the pandemic. But there is evidence that it has prevented the country’s public-health crisis from worsening, too.

In a new working paper, researchers at Duke University find that policies aimed at preventing the eviction of delinquent tenants have helped to slow the spread of the virus. Using data from the COVID Tracking Project, an organisation that compiles statistics on the pandemic, the authors analysed the impact of such policies on covid-19 cases and deaths across all American counties between March 1st and November 28th. They studied three scenarios: one based on policies as they were implemented, another which assumed that such policies were introduced at the start of the pandemic, and a third in which they had never been implemented at all. The researchers estimate that, as they were implemented, policies limiting evictions reduced covid-19 infections by 3.8% and deaths by 11%, compared with what would have happened if nothing had been done. Had these policies been adopted nationwide in early March, infections would have been reduced by 14.2% and deaths by 40.7%, relative to the do-nothing scenario (see chart). The authors found similar results for policies that kept landlords from shutting off tenants’ utilities, a common precursor to eviction.

It is easy to see how such measures might help slow the spread of a deadly virus. People who have been kicked out of their homes often move in with friends or family or take up residence in homeless shelters, increasing the contact they have with others and making social distancing difficult. Those who lack access to safe water, because their utilities have been turned off, may struggle to maintain basic hygiene, such as washing their hands, one of the simplest ways of stopping the spread of covid-19. Households under financial strain may also make unwise decisions about their health and safety. Some 20% of American households surveyed in 2018 chose to reduce or forgo purchases of food and medicine to pay utility bills.

On February 16th Mr Biden announced that the government’s moratorium on foreclosing federally backed mortgages, which was due to expire on March 31st, would be extended until the end of June. This will come as a welcome relief to the millions of homeowners struggling to make their mortgage payments. But cash-strapped renters will have to wait and see. The eviction moratorium was not included in Mr Biden’s action plan, and remains in effect only until March. As the president makes battling the covid-19 pandemic a priority, a further extension may be warranted.