A surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve sent a wave of cash into financial exchange-traded funds, which stand to benefit from rising interest rates.
Investors poured roughly $1.7 billion into bank ETFs on Wednesday, with State Street’s SPDR S&P Regional Banking (ticker KRE) notching a record inflow of $932 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The $4 billion SPDR S&P Bank ETF (ticker KBE) had its biggest intake since March, while the $44 billion Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (ticker XLF) lured the most cash in a month.
The influx followed the U.S. central bank’s June meeting as policy makers projected two rate increases by the end of 2023 -- earlier than anticipated just six weeks ago. That’s a boon for banks, given how closely tied the industry’s shares are to Treasury yields. While an S&P 500 gauge of financial companies fell on Thursday, analysts said the Fed’s hawkish tilt may still bode well for the sector.
“I’m not surprised to see money flowing into those when you have the Fed expressing surprise that inflation is picking up faster than they expected,” said Bob Phillips, managing principal at Spectrum Management Group. “If you expect rates to take off, that’s a natural place to allocate your money.”
Financial ETFs have absorbed over $25 billion so far this year, after taking in $2.2 billion in 2020, Bloomberg Intelligence data show. The bulk of last year’s inflow came after November, when a flurry of coronavirus vaccine breakthroughs lifted Treasury yields as well as value sectors like banks and energy amid optimism about an economic reopening.
LISTEN: Michael Mayo, Senior Banking Analyst for Wells Fargo Securities, discusses the Fed decision and what it means for banks with hosts Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Radio.
Of course, 2023 is a long way off, and the U.S. economy has yet to fully recover from the pandemic hit. That risk was on display Thursday, when a bigger-than-expected jump in unemployment benefits filings sent 10-year Treasury yields lower. Still, the direction of travel in the Fed’s projections should benefit banks, according to Moors & Cabot Inc.
“It isn’t the start date per se that triggered the flows, but rather the rate-of-change of the movement. In other words, if they were saying 2024 then, and now they are saying 2023 now, is 2022 next?” said James Pillow, a managing director at the firm. “Either way, financials love the new pace.”
Following are KRE’s biggest holdings as of June 16:
| Name | Ticker | Position | Value (USD) | Change in Position | % of Total Asset Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Signature Bank | SBNY US Equity | 471,776 | 121.9 million | -3,410 | 2.3 |
| First Republic Bank | FRC US Equity | 652,932 | 121.8 million | -4,730 | 2.3 |
| Citizens Financial Group Inc. | CFG US Equity | 2.5 million | 119.8 million | -18,117 | 2.3 |
| Sterling Bancorp | STL US Equity | 4.57 million | 119.6 million | -33,132 | 2.3 |
| Comerica Inc. | CMA US Equity | 1.6 million | 119.5 million | -11,594 | 2.3 |
| PNC Financial Services Group I | PNC US Equity | 628,389 | 119.5 million | -4,543 | 2.3 |
| Fifth Third Bancorp | FITB US Equity | 2.92 million | 118.3 million | -21,076 | 2.2 |
| SVB Financial Group | SIVB US Equity | 207,289 | 117.5 million | -1,507 | 2.2 |
| First Horizon Corp. | FHN US Equity | 6.44 million | 117.4 million | -46,684 | 2.2 |
| KeyCorp | KEY US Equity | 5.34 million | 116.7 million | -38,698 | 2.2 |
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— With assistance by Claire Ballentine
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.