Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem indicated he won’t be in any rush to hike interest rates even if the economy makes up pandemic losses.
In a speech titled “The benefits of an inclusive economy,” Macklem reiterated the central bank will continue to support the economy until a complete recovery takes place but added specifics on what that looks like. He cited employment surpassing pre-pandemic levels and businesses reinvesting again.
“We will use our monetary policy tools to support a complete recovery and achieve our inflation goal,” Macklem said in remarks prepared for a virtual speech before the Universities of Atlantic Canada.
“A complete recovery is a shared recovery,” he said. “It means that we’ve not only recovered the jobs lost due to the pandemic, but we have also created jobs for graduating students and others who have entered the job market since the start of the pandemic.”
The Bank of Canada last month accelerated the timetable for a possible interest-rate increase and began paring back its bond purchases -- the first major economy to signal its intent to reduce emergency levels of monetary stimulus. Since then, the Canadian dollar has gained 3.1% and is up 4.9% this year, the best performing major currency. Macklem didn’t mention the currency in his speech.
Despite the change in forecasts last month, Macklem has always sought to emphasize the central bank’s commitment is not to raise interest rates before the economy fully recovers, and that any future hike would reflect economic conditions at the time. That was the focus Thursday.
The comments provide a more concrete frame around the sort of indicators that Macklem is looking. For example, it’s not enough for the economy to make up for the nearly 3 million jobs lost last year during the height of the pandemic.
He reiterated the Bank of Canada’s forward guidance that the central bank will keep its policy rate at 0.25% “until the spare capacity in the economy is used up, so that we sustainably achieve our 2% inflation target.”
He also said a complete recovery means businesses “have confidence that the pandemic and its effects are well behind us, demand for goods or services has come back, and they are looking to add capacity and invest in new opportunities.”
In the speech, Macklem also discussed the importance of having a diverse and inclusive workforce overall. The more people working, the stronger the economy will be.
“A more inclusive economy is a bigger economy, a more prosperous economy with more room to grow without creating inflationary pressures,” he said.