Instead, with enough vaccination, Covid-19 will become less of a burden on the health system and citizens will learn to live with it like they do influenza.

In a statement released by the Doherty Institute ahead of new modelling expected to be presented to national cabinet on Friday, a spokesperson said it was important to note Covid-19 “won’t go away”, but it will be “easier to control”.

Last month, National Cabinet agreed on a four-phase “road map” out of Covid-19, based on modelling by the Doherty Institute.

When 70 per cent of the eligible population (currently adults aged over 16) is double-jabbed, the country will enter Phase B – “Vaccination transition phase” – where Covid-19 restrictions and lockdowns are still possible but less likely.

At 80 per cent, Phase C – “Consolidation” – will begin, with lockdowns only being “highly targeted” and vaccinated residents will be exempt from domestic restrictions.

But, even after 80 per cent of the eligible population is vaccinated, Covid-19 will still need to be managed with some public health measures – test, trace, isolate and quarantine.

Restrictions will just ease further and lockdowns will become more generalised so that Phase D – “Normal” – can be reached, where Covid-19 is managed like the flu.

However, some state leaders are now arguing they won’t abide by the road map, because initial modelling was based on outbreaks with daily numbers of 30 and did not account for cases in excess of 800 currently being experienced in NSW.

The institute said the 70-80 per cent level of vaccination will “make it easier to live with the virus,” as we do with other viruses such as the flu.

“However, it won’t be possible to maintain a situation where there are no cases at all. The focus will shift to keeping the number of people going into hospital and dying at a minimum,” the institute said.

“In an average year of influenza, we would roughly have 600 deaths and 200,000 cases in Australia. Any death is a tragedy but our health system can cope with this.”

In the Covid-19 modelling from the Doherty Institute, opening the country up at 70 per cent vaccine coverage with partial public health measures would result in a predicted 385,983 cases and 1457 deaths over six months.

But, the Institute’s modelling recommends with “optimal” public health measures and no lockdowns, this could be significantly reduced to 2737 infections and 13 deaths.

“We’ve learned from watching countries that have removed all restrictions that there is no ‘freedom day’. We will need to keep some public health measures in place to keep the reproduction number below 1. But, as vaccination rates increase, we’ll be able to ease up further,” the Institute said.

“Once we reach 70 per cent vaccine coverage, opening up at tens or hundreds of cases national per day is possible, however we will need vigilant public health interventions with higher case loads.”

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said throughout her state’s worsening outbreak that Covid-19 will not disappear, but that the state needs to “learn to live” with it.

“We appreciate that vaccination is our best bet when … living with Delta. We need to learn from what’s happened overseas,” she said on Monday.

“Every state is going to have to go through this … because eventually borders are going to have to come down … and Delta is going to be a part of the community.”

Making a nod to the situation in NSW, where 818 cases were recorded on Monday, the Doherty Institute said the public health measures – test, trace, isolate and quarantine – were working.

“They are stopping transmissions and reducing the effective reproduction rate from 5 to close to 1.3 in NSW. These measures will become more effective with more people vaccinated,” the Institute said.

“We need to keep suppressing Covid-19 through public health measures while we work towards 70-80 per cent vaccination across the country.

“We are working towards better control of Covid-19 and a more stable future.”

As of Tuesday, 30.3 per cent of Australians aged over 16 are fully vaccinated.