Is Germany planning to ground short-haul flights? One might think so witnessing the intense debate on the subject occupying local media.

In May, Annalena Baerbock — the German Green party’s candidate for chancellor — said in an interview that “short-haul flights shouldn’t exist in the future,” advocating for higher taxes and the eventual abolition of such flights. While they’ve slipped in recent polls, the Greens are still poised for a strong showing in September’s national vote and could be positioned for a role in the next government, giving the position weight.

With pandemic-weary Germans ready to travel as lockdown restrictions ease and Germany’s election campaign heating up, her comments have been welcome fodder for media and politicians. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives has said the policy risks making vacation flights a privilege for the wealthy, while the liberal Free Democrats have mocked the Greens for having a “ban fetish.”

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The position is less controversial than it might come across. Curbs on short-haul flights have widespread support, with a 2020 survey from the European Investment Bank finding that 67% of German respondents supported such measures.

And with increased train services, a domestic flight might not be especially convenient. According to 2019 figures, 42% of intra-German routes could be covered by a train journey of four hours or less — making the train quicker once check-in, security checks and airport transfers are factored in. Extend that train journey to six hours, and 96% could be covered.

The emissions produced by a train journey, meanwhile, are strikingly lower. Based on calculations from a tool created by Germany’s Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, a train journey from Berlin to Munich produces on average 5.7 times less carbon dioxide and 20 times less smog-producing nitrogen oxides, while also consuming five times less fuel.

Nevertheless, abolishing these flights is unlikely to be imminent. The Greens’ manifesto actually commits the party to making “short-haul flights superfluous” by 2030 through improving train services, which isn’t the same as a ban. Even if they wanted immediate action, the Greens’ coalition partners would most likely be the Christian Democrat-led conservative bloc, vocal critics of such a proposal.

Labor unions also oppose a ban, while the German state — a stakeholder in many German airports and in national carrier Deutsche Lufthansa AG — might be reluctant to lose income. And legal changes may be far further away than the debate implies, as Germany’s green policymaking often lags behind its international reputation for sustainability.

But efforts to encourage more train travel are nonetheless happening. In March, Deutsche Bahn announced new direct express rail services to cities across Germany from Lufthansa’s Frankfurt hub, making it easier for long-haul passengers to return home without another domestic flight. France already has a ban on flights that can be covered by train in less than 2.5 hours (a very small number), while Spain is considering something similar.

Shorter flights may not be abolished if Germany’s Greens come into power, but a European future in which they play an ever-smaller role seems on the way.