Welcome to Next Africa, a weekly newsletter of where the continent stands now — and where it's going next. 

As the world’s richest countries ease coronavirus restrictions and prepare for a return to pre-pandemic life, Africa is in the grip of a rapidly escalating third wave.

Across the continent, hospital beds are filling up and oxygen supplies are dwindling. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Namibia and Uganda are reporting record case increases, while  South Africa and Zambia are also hard hit.

Never have the calls to end vaccine hoarding by the developed world seemed so poignant. While the U.S. and the U.K. have fully inoculated about 45% of their people and the European Union about a quarter, just 0.8% of Africa’s 1.1 billion inhabitants have received two doses.

Few African nations have had the financial or organizational ability to negotiate their own supply deals with pharmaceutical companies. And Covax, the vaccine-sharing initiative, has been slow to deliver and is hamstrung by India’s reluctance to allow exports during its own crisis.

The U.S. and the U.K. have joined China in making announcements about vaccine donations, but those shots won’t arrive for months. By then, tens of thousands of Africans, if not more, will be dead and restrictions on gatherings and school closures will have set the continental economy back even further.

This “causes us to reflect deeply and ask ourselves existential questions on the meanings of multilateralism, of the meanings of humanity,” Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi said in a recent interview. “What do these concepts now mean in the face of Covid-19?”

News & Opinion

Missed Chance | If there was ever a time Nigeria could have taken off, it was in 1999. Democracy had been restored, with its economy reopening after decades of mismanagement and plunder under military dictatorships. Instead, policy missteps, entrenched corruption and an over-reliance on crude oil mean a country that makes up a quarter of the continent’s economic activity risks becoming its biggest problem.

Independence Hero | Kenneth Kaunda, who led Zambia to independence and then served as president for almost three decades, has died aged 97. Waving his trademark white handkerchief to signal approval to crowds of supporters, Kaunda emerged as a major figure in the fight for majority rule across southern Africa. His government provided support to Black liberation movements in neighboring Zimbabwe, Namibia, Angola and Mozambique.

Banking Push | Goldman Sachs is searching for post-pandemic profits in South Africa —  putting it on a collision course with the country’s biggest banks. Already a top trader of government bonds, the New York company is now ramping up in financing, an area dominated by local lenders such as Standard Bank and FirstRand. In anticipation that South Africa will fast recover from its deepest recession in a century, Goldman is moving to a larger Johannesburg office and hiring new staff. 

Big Election | Three years after heralding an end to authoritarian rule and outlining plans to open up Ethiopia’s economy, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is alienating allies and frightening off investors. Even so, domestic backing and a fragmented opposition mean he’s a shoo-in to win his first electoral test on June 21. Meanwhile, Egypt made a new appeal to the United Nations Security Council in its long-running dispute over Ethiopia’s massive Nile dam. 

Bauxite Boost | Guinea, which has the world’s largest proven reserves of bauxite, is poised to expand production after the nation’s top miner of the ore completed a $1 billion railway linking new blocks to an export terminal. Most of the new production may go to China, which last year was the biggest buyer of bauxite — the raw material used to make alumina and eventually aluminum.

Heritage Protest | Amazon’s planned new Africa headquarters is the subject of demonstrations as indigenous people protest its construction on a heritage site. The City of Cape Town has approved the project, saying the move will create thousands of jobs and give a boost to the Covid-19-ravaged economy. But objections have been raised by members of the Khoisan people, the original settlers on the land, who say the location hosted early battles with Portuguese settlers.

Past & Prologue

Data Watch 

• AngloGold’s lack of a permanent CEO and a suspension of its Ghana mine operations are weighing on the stock. Shares of the world’s third-largest gold producer have dropped 35% in the past year, making it the worst performer in the 113-company Bloomberg World Mining Index.

• Yields on Ethiopia's dollar bonds due 2024 climbed to a 13-month high this week amid concerns about rising spending as well as the impact of U.S. sanctions imposed over the Tigray conflict.

Third Wave

South Africa is back on alert level 3 for the first time since February

Source: Presidency

Coming Up

• June 21 Ethiopian elections, African leaders among speakers at Qatar Economic Forum
• June 22 South Africa leading indicator for April
• June 23 Southern African leaders meet to discuss an Islamist insurgency in Mozambique, South Africa inflation for May, African finance officials begin African Development Bank meeting
• June 24 South Africa PPI for May, Zambia 1Q GDP and inflation for June, trade balance for May

Last Word

A unit of De Beers discovered a 1,098 carat diamond in Botswana, which preliminary analysis suggests could be the third-largest gem-quality stone ever found. Valuation is due in a few weeks and the mining company can’t yet say whether the rock will be sold by De Beers or through a state-owned trader. The two biggest diamonds ever unearthed are the Cullinan, now part of Britain’s Crown Jewels, and the Lesedi la Rona, both found in southern Africa in 1905 and 2015 respectively. Botswana accounts for more than two-thirds of De Beers’ output, while the country relies on diamonds for 90% of its exports. Meanwhile in South Africa, the government ordered people to stop desperately searching for diamonds near the town of Ladysmith after images began circulating on social media of miners apparently celebrating after striking it rich.

 

— With assistance by Fumbuka Ng'Wanakilala