Race-by-race guide and tips for Newcastle on Thursday

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Selections based on a good track.

Race 1 – 12:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP PLATE (1890 METRES)

5. Urbino is an import first-up here without an official trial but on what he’s shown in his five starts he’s clearly the one to beat. Ran second to Godolphin’s smart Ghostwatch (video below) at his second start, has performed on turf and finds a winnable race.

Dangers: 1. Devil Dan has placed in three of his last four starts including once over this trip where he gave a short priced favourite a big scare. Not far off a win and is sure to run well again. 8. Royal Anthem has made an art form of running second with nine of them to her name including seven from nine starts this prep. Every chance last time at Hawkesbury, doubt she has the punch required but she can place again. 3. Populist comes off a second as favourite at Muswellbrook, also doubt that’s good enough to get the cash here and he’s another contender for the minor money.

How to play it: Urbino WIN.
Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Eight races fill out the card at Newcastle on Thursday.

Eight races fill out the card at Newcastle on Thursday.Credit:Max Mason-Hubers

Race 2 - 1:15PM PRIME 7 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

2. Arrogante is another short priced favourite but again he appears well placed to win this. Two runs since his all the way Port Macquarie win back in March are sound, he’s the horse with upside and at peak now.

Dangers: 1. Jarhead didn’t do a whole lot when resuming at Kembla but the 1500m is much more his go. Expect he’ll roll forward from the outside and put himself in the race, should be a sharp improver. 3. Manno was a $21 chance when fourth in the same race as Arrogante ran second at Tamworth and he was closing of okay. Well worth including in the main chances. 4. Tiomo was a bit one paced at Coffs Harbour last start, just working home in midfield. Hit the line well here behind Seel The Deel prior to that, just one win from 22 is the concern. Each-way if you like him.

How to play it: Arrogante WIN; Trifecta 2/1,3,4/1,3,4.
Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 3 – 1.50PM TOP CUT FOODS HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

6. Monstrosity wasn’t disgraced after a wide run behind Subedar at his third start and stepping up in trip looks to be right up his alley. He was a $21 chance there but this is an open maiden and his chance to show his best.

Dangers: 8. Joy’s Reward started double figures first-up and worked to the line nicely enough without threatening over 1200m. Drawn a bit better here and the extra distance is a plus. Expect her to be competitive. 2. Majella has found one better in both starts to date, had her chance behind Emeralds at Kembla but the winner was odds-on and she didn’t give up the chase. Must be considered. 1. First Footman is an import first-up off two trials and in his second over 1200m he was on the pace and stayed on under minimal pressure. Market will be interesting, if he’s solid he could go close.

How to play it: Monstrosity E/W.
Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 4 – 2.25PM REWARD HOSPITALITY HANDICAP (900 METRES)

1. Wayupinthesky is horse with the most scope for improvement and while barrier one at 900m could be sticky for her she’s the one to beat. Solid in a G2 on debut then got the job done on a heavy at Warwick Farm in March. Nice quiet trial, needs a smooth run but hard to tip against.

Dangers: 7. No Doubt Acracker has mixed race form but plenty to like about her two trial wins leading in. Trained locally, drawn well and gets in with 51kg so if she’s going to measure up it’ll be now. 2. Alison Of Tuffy won first-up last preparation and she trialled well behind Appian Way, who won on Tuesday, recently. Ignore her last couple before a spell in Group company and she’s a major player here. 5. Dizzy Miss Lizzy is consistent enough but just one win now from 10 starts is a bit of a worry. Beaten favourite at Goulburn last time but has been top three in six of her 10 so is in the mix.

How to play it: Wayupinthesky WIN; Trifecta 1/ 2,5,7/2,5,7.
Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Race 5 – 3.05PM COASTLINE POOLS & SPAS PLATE (900 METRES)

5. Hit The Rim has just the one trial behind him but it was a good one narrowly downed by Mo’s Crown at Warwick Farm. The plus for him is gate one over the short trip so if he can make use of it he has a big chance to kick off with a win.

Dangers: 6. Peak is a huge watch first-up since his only start at Caulfield back in April where he ran fourth. Two jumpouts at Flemington are his preparation for this and the latest contained the likes of Fundamentalist and Exhilarates. 900m from a wide gate is not ideal but keep very safe. 8. For Love had good support first-up and led before being run down at Hawkesbury on August 1. Fitter for that and should give a sight here too. 10. Obscene engaged in a speed battle at Gosford last start and set it up for the winner but still held on okay for third. Worth throwing in.

How to play it: Hit The Rim E/W.
Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 6 – 3.40PM SAGE PAINTING HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

3. Laila De Vega was a bit flat second-up at Wyong having sprinted well fresh to win. Prepared to forgive last time, she was narrowly beaten over this course before a spell and finds Hugh Bowman to ride. Good chance.

Dangers: 1. Elusive Nature showed improvement second-up in a closing second at Gosford over a mile with the winner leading all the way. Capable type who could easily go one better here. 2. Renalot is fitter for two runs back and closed off very late to be beaten half a length at Kembla two weekends ago. Doesn’t need to improve a lot to be in the finish of this too. 9. Lady Wahoo finished just ahead of Laila De Vega when they met at Wyong so is worth throwing into the numbers. Consistent type of late so another placing isn’t out of the question.

How to play it: Laila De Vega E/W.
Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Race 7 - 4:20PM HUNGERFORD HILL WINES PLATE (1300 METRES)

2. Rancho Notorious was probably beaten by the short trip and lack of tempo first-up but he attacked the line strongly late to run a clear second. Fitter, extra trip is perfect for him, he has the ability and this is a good chance for him to break the shackles.

Dangers: 3. Sethlans contested the same race as Rancho Notorious and ran third after being handy all the way. Couldn’t see him turning the tables but he will also be improved and the inside gate means he’ll likely be in front of Rancho here. Go well. 12. Living Rocks found the line well in an on pacers race on debut at Canterbury. She was scratched from Warwick Farm on Wednesday for this and 1300m on a bigger track suits. Definite chance. 6. Oxidization showed some promise in her first preparation with a couple of city placings before her form tapered off a bit. Two sharp trials and resumes over a trip that gives her a chance to wind up. Not out of it.

How to play it: Rancho Notorious WIN; Trifecta 2/3,6,12/3,6,12.
Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 8 - 4:55PM AUSTRALIAN BLOODSTOCK HANDICAP (1890 METRES)

6. Agosto is the horse to beat but wouldn’t want any shorter price. He was too good first-up in Australia at 1500m, finishing nicely to score, and the extra distance is a huge plus. The negative could be barrier two and that’s the small risk.

Dangers: 9. Succendam is another promising northern hemisphere bred stayer on the way up and his maiden win at Wyong was impressive despite the smallish margin. He’ll love a bigger track and looks a serious danger. 4. He’s Imposing might be a run away from hitting top gear but liked the way he’s been finishing off his races over shorter trips at his last couple. If there’s an upset it could be him. 8. Parry Sound was far too good for Royal Anthem winning at Hawkesbury a couple of weeks ago. Tougher ask here especially from an outside gate but he’s also in possession of some upside. Each-way.

How to play it: Agosto WIN; Trifecta 6/4,8,9/4,8,9.
Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Tips supplied by Racing NSW.

Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.