A bullish pattern is emerging in SpaceX shares, says Frank Cappelleri
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With so many high-profile IPOs happening in 2026, I've often been asked how to properly trade these stocks during their initial stages as public companies. My answer has been the same regardless of the company: technical analysis can be especially helpful after a stock goes public because, for the first time, we can actually see supply and demand illustrated on a chart. People can debate the value of a private company all they want, but there's no true indication of what the public market is willing to pay for it until this happens As we know, some of the best-performing stocks simply look like monster uptrends that have been in place for ever. But in their earliest stages, that certainly wasn't obvious. Here's what AAPL did in its first year of trading. And what it has done from that first day of trading until now.. nearly 42 years later. After a number of weeks or months, a few important things begin to emerge: Short-term price patterns start to develop. Moving averages begin to appear as enough trading days accumulate. It's really not until those things occur that we start to get a better understanding of the stock's technical structure and, more importantly, what market participants have been doing to create that structure. As we discuss often, patterns aren't simply shapes on a chart. They represent the push and pull between supply and demand over a period of time. That battle creates the patterns we follow, the levels that matter, and ultimately determines whether breakouts succeed or fail. For a newly public stock, that developing price history is what finally gives us something tangible to analyze. SPCX: A pattern emerges This is particularly true for SPCX , of course, which was the biggest IPO to date when it started trading in June. Its huge moves since then have been well chronicled, from the first spike toward 200 to eventually undercutting its IPO price before rising again. Putting all of that together, a potential bullish cup-and-handle pattern has now emerged. The most recent pullback created a higher low near the 130 mark, while the trading range that has developed since the middle of August has formed the handle portion of the pattern. A breakout above the 150 area would complete the pattern and produce a measured-move upside target near 195, which is close to where SPCX traded shortly after its IPO. The moving averages are starting to matter Also of note are two moving averages: the 20-day moving average in green and the 50-day moving average in blue. Again, these are just starting to appear on the chart, but one noticeable difference since early August is that nearly all of the price action has taken place above a rising 20-day moving average. That is a constructive short-term development. The 50-day moving average has only been in existence for about two weeks, but so far, SPCX is trading above it. The next constructive development would be for the 50-day moving average to begin curling higher, as well. One of the best-case technical scenarios is seeing a stock continue to trade above and respect rising moving averages, regardless of the time frame we're analyzing. More evidence will come with time The next step will be seeing additional indicators and longer-term reference points take shape. From a longer-term perspective, the 200-day moving average won't appear for quite some time. But when it does, we'll have considerably more price history behind us and another important trend reference to monitor. There also will be many more patterns to evaluate along the way. Eventually, we'll be able to analyze SPCX from longer-term perspectives as well, moving from the daily chart to weekly and, eventually, monthly charts. That's really the point when analyzing a new IPO technically: we don't need to predict what the stock will ultimately become. We let the price action develop and allow the chart to continually give us more evidence. DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.