THOSE CLOSE to him warn that Armin Laschet is always written off prematurely. Look at the record. In 2017 Mr Laschet led his centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) to an unexpected victory in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state. This January he saw off a challenge from his party’s right wing to win the CDU’s national leadership, and three months later bested Markus Söder, the more popular leader of the CDU’s Bavarian sibling, the Christian Social Union (CSU), to become the parties’ joint candidate to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor.
Could Mr Laschet pull it off again? His campaign has been dismal. One month ago the CDU/CSU fell behind the Social Democrats (SPD), led by the popular Olaf Scholz, in opinion polls, and has stayed there ever since. Yet the last week has seen a (modest) tightening; most polls now have the CDU/CSU and the SPD within their margin of error. Despite the SPD’s small lead, The Economist’s election model, which has analysed the performance of polls in past elections, gives the CDU/CSU a two-thirds chance of taking first place on Sunday. Mr Laschet’s confidantes are quietly hopeful. A campaign full of surprises may yet have one more to spring.
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Two days before the election, cities across Germany have been convulsed by the latest Fridays for Future climate strikes. Speaking outside the Bundestag in Berlin, near The Economist’s office, Greta Thunberg told a vast crowd of schoolchildren and other protesters that if they demand change, “change will come”. Climate has been an important issue in a campaign otherwise dominated by personalities and trivia. But that the CDU/CSU and SPD, both of which have tempered their climate ambitions, are leading in the polls suggest the protesters have their work cut out. In not unrelated news, Germany’s median voter is in his or her 50s.
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The German and international press has been full of farewells to Angela Merkel, and the reviews are mixed. The chancellor has had a varied week herself. On Tuesday she hosted Mr Laschet in her Baltic Sea constituency for a campaign event, only to be greeted by pelting rain and a booing mob of anti-vaxxers. But on Thursday she spawned what will surely be a thousand memes after briefly becoming a personal nesting ground for a colourful ensemble of rainbow lorikeets at a bird park near Rostock. Either way, Sunday’s election will not quite mark Mrs Merkel’s swan-song: lengthy and fractious coalition negotiations mean she is likely to be around for a while yet.
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The world has been fascinated by the contest to succeed Mrs Merkel, but Germany has not returned the favour. Bar one brief discussion on Afghanistan, the three televised debates between the leading candidates included nothing at all on foreign or European policy. A broader debate that included smaller parties on Thursday did a little better, including a lively exchange on Germany’s China policy. But for the most part the election has been a dispiritingly parochial affair.
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And finally, a brief guide to how to watch Sunday’s election. At 6pm the first exit poll will be published. Although these are usually reliable guides to the final results, this year brings particular uncertainties, including a high share of postal votes (perhaps 40% or more). Official projections will start to roll in soon afterwards, and at 8.15pm the various party leaders will take part in the traditional “elephant round” discussion live on television, where they will set out their stall for the coalition talks to come. By this time the result should be fairly clear, although small margins could matter in shaping the narrative that will drive the negotiations—especially if the battle for top spot between the CDU/CSU and SPD is too close to call. Later in the evening officials will deliver a preliminary full result. One thing is clear: the period after election day will be at least as important as that leading up to it. Viel Spaß bei der Wahl!