NO ONE KNOWS how many people have died of covid-19. Add up official figures from around the world, and you arrive at a total of 3.3m. But that is a gross underestimate. Official figures are patchy and slow, especially in poor countries. This week, drawing on a wide range of data, The Economist published its own estimate of global excess mortality—the number of extra deaths, compared with what would otherwise be expected. Our answer: somewhere between 7.1m and 12.7m, with a central estimate of 10m. (A film explaining our model can be found here.) As the pandemic has spread from rich countries to poor ones, the daily toll has climbed. Making and distributing more vaccines is the key to halting this. But a waiver of intellectual-property claims, as President Joe Biden has proposed, will do nothing to fill the urgent shortfall, and in the longer term may deter innovation.
Escalating violence since clashes between Palestinians and Israeli police near the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem on the last Friday night of Ramadan have brought the two sides to the brink of war. Hamas, the militant Islamist group that controls Gaza, has fired more than 1,600 rockets into Israel, many of them intercepted by the Iron Dome defence system; Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes. Scores, mostly Palestinians, have been killed. Violence between Jews and Arabs (who are 20% of the population) has also broken out in Israeli cities. In four elections within two years, Israeli politicians have ignored the conflict; Palestinian leaders’ failings have made it easy for Israel to give up on peace. Only negotiation can bring a lasting solution.
On Wednesday Republicans in America’s House of Representatives ousted Liz Cheney from the third-highest post in the caucus. Ms Cheney’s impeccable conservative credentials count for little; still less does her being the daughter of a vice-president. She rejects Donald Trump’s false claim that last November’s election was stolen, and in today’s party that is a mortal sin. Her replacement is Elise Stefanik, an ex-critic of Mr Trump turned unswerving fan. Of the two congresswomen, Ms Stepanik’s voting record is more moderate. Yet conservative Republican voters disapprove of Ms Cheney, and approve of Ms Stefanik, by a wider margin than moderates do. Blind loyalty to Mr Trump, not ideology, is what counts.
Economic policymakers haven’t had to worry about inflation for a while (though they’ve had plenty else to keep them occupied). As the global economy recovers from the pandemic, that may change—especially in America, where consumer prices jumped by 4.2% in the year to April. That was far more than expected and the highest annual inflation rate since 2008. There are shortages in the supply of everything from timber to semiconductors and America’s labour market is tightening. Europe’s economy, too, is picking up faster than feared. For now central bankers think a rise in inflation will be transitory. But bond markets think the Fed will be forced to act sooner than it wants.
An overhaul of the taxation of multinational companies is long overdue. The gap between where they report profits (and pay tax) and where they conduct business is wide, partly because of the growing importance of intangible assets, such as brands. Between 2000 and 2018 the share of American firms’ profits booked in tax havens doubled to 63%, even though only about 5% of their staff work in such places. President Joe Biden, who wants them to pay more tax at home, has proposed a higher federal tax rate and an international minimum. This summer 139 countries, brought together by the OECD, hope to agree on new principles. Reformed corporate taxation may dismay shareholders, but it may be good for workers, as well as replenishing some governments’ empty coffers.