How prepared for Omicron are America and Europe?

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IT IS NOT yet known how contagious Omicron, the latest variant of SARS-CoV-2, really is. Despite this the World Health Organisation has warned the world to prepare for new surges of infections. For many governments that means stepping up their vaccination campaigns. In Europe and America, where double vaccination is common, it means distributing more booster shots.

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New research published in the Lancet, a medical journal, on December 2nd found that in a trial among 2,878 people in Britain, boosters reduced the risk of infection by the more common Delta variant. A team led by Saul Faust from the University of Southampton found that among seven vaccines tested two mRNA vaccines, made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, provided the biggest boost. Similarly, a study from Israel—the first country to begin administering boosters—of 728,000 people found that an extra shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine reduced admissions to hospital by 93%.

So far not much is known about how the existing vaccines will respond to Omicron. The large number of mutations on its virus spike protein could cause the virus to evade antibodies made to fight other strains. But any booster should increase the number of antibodies in ways that should provide some extra protection. BioNTech and Moderna are both working on new vaccines specific to Omicron, as they did with Delta (although neither went into production since the original vaccines held up well). BioNTech says it could have one ready in 100 days.


The timing of Omicron’s arrival in Europe and America, at the start of the festive (and flu) season, could not be worse. Indoor parties and travel are just the sort of conditions in which the virus thrives. President Joe Biden insists there will be no lockdown in America. In just under a year the country has performed 464m inoculations. It has 114m doses at the ready and a further 640m on order. But just one-third of people over the age of 50 have had a third shot so far. Mr Biden has promised to increase the vaccination rate and also to make it easier for Americans to find out if they have covid by making home-testing kits available free of charge.

England’s booster campaign is further ahead. Sixty per cent of over 50s have already had a booster. This week the British government lowered the age of eligibility for a third jab from 40 to 18. To meet anticipated demand it has ordered an additional 60m doses from Moderna and 54m from Pfizer-BioNTech.

Europe must brace itself for Omicron even while Delta is still surging. Collectively the 27 countries of the European Union have 234m doses on hand, and the EU has an order with Pfizer-BioNTech for another 900m next year. But supply is not the problem. Over the past four weeks the pace of vaccination in the EU has fallen by half. Among the 25 EU countries that report such data, just one-quarter of people aged over 50 have had a third shot. And across the bloc 68m adults have had no vaccine at all. The situation is especially dire in eastern European countries such as Bulgaria and Romania, where vaccine hesitancy is high.

A lockdown last week in Austria, the first country to introduce compulsory vaccinations, prompted furious protests. To counter hesitancy in Germany, Olaf Scholz, who will next week replace Angela Merkel as chancellor, said on November 30th that the country may make vaccination mandatory from February. On December 3rd new rules limiting the movement of unvaccinated people came into force. While governments look to third shots for salvation, the real risk comes from those who refuse even their first.


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