Australia’s move to dump a massive contract with France for conventional submarines and switch to nuclear-powered vessels built with U.S. help has significant ripple effects for global security.

The first takeaway is the U.S. geopolitical priority is China, China, China. The submarine plan is the centerpiece of an enhanced U.S.-U.K.-Australia alliance with the goal of countering Beijing. President Joe Biden has spoken of the need to train his energies on China, and the recent withdrawal from Afghanistan reflects that too.

The second is Biden wants Australia to have an elevated role in Asia supporting the U.S. militarily, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison shares his view of Beijing as the biggest threat over the long term. That’s even as this move will invite yet more trade peril for Australia’s commodities-dependent economy and retaliation from China.

In China, it will reinforce the view that countries are trying not just to compete with it but contain it — to throw a military net around it, particularly in waterways like the South China Sea. Beijing warned the plan would stoke an “arms race.”

For Europe, it’s a spur to think about greater defense self-reliance as U.S. priorities lie elsewhere. It’s awkward timing for the European Union’s push for a broader role in the Indo-Pacific, given the U.S. sees the U.K. instead as the bigger partner.

It’s a prestige blow to France — not just for the money but for President Emmanuel Macron, who already has a slightly fraught relationship with Biden. Paris has directed its ire over the contract shelving at the U.S., not Australia.

The French loss is the U.K.’s gain: It fits Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s narrative of a post-Brexit “Global Britain” striding out of the European shadows and onto the world stage in its own right.

Australia won’t have a nuclear submarine in the water for years. But the security impact will be immediate. — Rosalind Mathieson

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Global Headlines

Democratic rifts | Biden’s economic agenda may face delays because of squabbling between the Democratic Party’s progressive and moderate wings over tax, health care and climate change. While the House wrapped up work on big portions of the package yesterday, there are still obstacles threatening to dilute the ambitious proposals and hold up congressional votes.

Power problems | Europe’s energy crunch forced a major fertilizer maker to shut down two U.K. plants, the first sign that a record rally in gas and power prices is imperiling the region’s economic recovery. The continent is running out of time to refill storage facilities before winter, with the prospect of blackouts sending energy prices even higher, compounding concerns about inflation and adding to costs for businesses.

• A fire that took out a key electricity cable from France is adding to worries about spare capacity in Britain.

• Click here for an explainer on what’s behind Europe’s skyrocketing power prices.

Container Ships at Anchor

Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach

Data are bimonthly.

Data: Marine Exchange of Southern California

The pandemic has thrown the vital but usually humdrum world of logistics into a tailspin. Two years ago, a 40-foot container cost less than $2,000 to transport goods from Asia to the U.S., but today the service fetches as much as $25,000. As Brendan Murray explains, the system underpinning globalization — production on one side of the planet connected to consumers on the other — is too rigid to absorb the rolling tremors from Covid-19 or to recover quickly from jolts to consumer demand and the labor force.

Right regrouping | Given the unexpected resurgence of the Social Democrats during the campaign for the Sept. 26 election, it’s easy to overlook the fate of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany party, which entered the Bundestag for the first time four years ago. Yet as Chris Reiter reports, the nationalist party is likely to cement its position and could have a role in reshaping the German right if the ruling conservatives crash to defeat as polls suggest.

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Troubled path | Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was supposed to stride to an easy victory in the Sept. 20 snap election he called to win back a parliamentary majority. But as Derek Decloet reports, things haven’t gone according to plan, with polls suggesting Trudeau’s Liberal Party is barely ahead of the Conservatives.

Booster spotlight | Research in Israel showed that a third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine can slash rates of Covid-related illness in people 60 and older. While the news is likely to strengthen the case that leaders like Biden are making for a third shot, the analysis has a major caveat: It’s based on a short-term follow-up with no guarantee of a long-term benefit.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said a Covid-19 outbreak in the Kremlin has sickened dozens of people working close to him.

Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with David Westin weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here or check out prior episodes and guest clips here. A key guest on today’s show will be House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, talking about Congress’s busy autumn and the key legislative priorities.

What to Watch

• Iran’s new president is flying to Tajikistan for his first foreign trip, where he’s expecting to gain membership of a growing Eurasian club led by China and Russia whose economic muscle has helped Tehran blunt American sanctions.
• North Korea said its latest volley of ballistic missiles was test-fired from a train, suggesting Kim Jong Un has a new option for a quick strike against U.S. allies in the region.
• The United Arab Emirates will invest billions of pounds in U.K. infrastructure, clean energy and technology over the coming years as the Gulf state seeks to strengthen trade ties beyond the Middle East.
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets Macron in Paris today to discuss future relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan, the situation in Libya and Belarus, and preparations for upcoming EU summits.

And finally ... Australia’s prime minister trended on Twitter after Biden appeared to forget his name during their virtual press conference last night. Morrison spoke first, followed by Johnson, before Biden had his turn. “I want to thank that fella Down Under,” Biden said. “Thank you very much pal. Appreciate it, Mr. Prime Minister.” The hashtag ThatFellaDownUnder took off shortly afterward.

 

— With assistance by Karl Maier, and Alan Crawford