TD Cowen downgrades coffee giant over China macroeconomic headwinds
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Investors should be cautious on Starbucks stock, according to TD Cowen. The firm downgraded the coffee behemoth to market perform from outperform in a Tuesday note, and lowered its price target to $107 from $117. TD Cowen's forecast implies nearly 11% upside from Monday's $96.76 close. Starbucks stock has slipped more than 2% from the start of the year and was off 1.45% in premarket trading Tuesday. SBUX YTD mountain Starbucks stock has pulled back 2.4% from the start of 2023. Analyst Andrew Charles pinned the downgrade to a "worrisome" macroeconomic picture in China due to slower consumer spending, which he said could slam the breaks on share growth and hit the company's multiple. "While we forecast consensus 2023-25E EPS is achievable, in our view the multiple isn't discounted enough vs the 5Y [average] that leads us to expect shares will be in a holding pattern," Charles said. "We like the long-term story but move to the sidelines as we monitor China macro & competitive dynamics." Charles also noted U.S. headwinds associated with slower month-over-month non-farm payroll increases, which could be reflected in Starbucks' morning business. "Starbucks' morning-oriented business tracks changes in payrolls as changes in the number of commuters naturally impacts morning routines," Charles said. "As a result, our 2024-25E aligns with 6% annual [average] comps in 2011-19 during the prior cycle of economic expansion." — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.