Test results in American schools plummeted during the pandemic

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DURING THE covid-19 pandemic America’s schoolchildren lost out on more than 70 weeks in the classroom. Most pupils received some form of virtual schooling. But the quality and quantity varied greatly. And although many parents appreciated the risk to health posed by keeping schools open, they—and teachers—were concerned that lessons taken at the kitchen table were less effective than those in a classroom. Just as the rapid spread of Omicron is causing governments to tighten social-distancing measures, so that a return to home-learning looks possible in many places, early results show just how much childrens’ education suffered.

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A recent working paper by a group of researchers led by Emily Oster, of Brown University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, looked at the results of standardised tests taken by children in grades three to eight (aged roughly eight to 13). The tests, which vary slightly between states, assessed pupils’ grasp of maths and English. The researchers examined 12 states, comparing the results of tests taken in 2019, before lockdowns, with those taken in 2021. They found a 14 percentage-point drop in the pass rates for maths and a six-point drop for English.

Scores in English and maths were falling even before the pandemic (although researchers cannot agree on why). To isolate the effect that remote schooling had on childrens’ performance the authors built a statistical model. For each district the model contained information on the amount of time that pupils spent attending school in person. It also contained information on covid-19 cases, the racial composition of the district and the number of pupils who were eligible for reduced-price lunches (a proxy for income).

The authors found that, even when controlling for these other factors, the amount of in-person schooling in a given school district had a big impact on pass rates. The results suggested that moving from fully virtual to fully in-person lessons counteracted the drop in scores by around ten percentage points for maths, and just over three percentage points for English. In both subjects, the detrimental effect of virtual schooling was largest in poorer areas, where students are more likely to lack the space for undisturbed study or the technology to access online lessons.

The study also found that districts with a greater proportion of black and Hispanic children tended to have lower rates of in-person schooling. A school district where one-quarter of students were black spent, on average, ten more weeks in the classroom than one where three-quarters of students were black. By missing out on more time on campus the pandemic has taken a greater toll on some children’s education than others. As the threat of an Omicron-induced fourth wave looms, the pressure is on to keep children in the classroom.

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