Watch out. Bank of America sees parallels between 2022 and now
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The bond market is giving 2022 vibes right now, and not in a positive way, according to Bank of America. Yields skyrocketed to multiyear highs this week, as oil prices stay elevated and new U.S. data suggests the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates even more to quell inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield reached levels not seen since 2007 above 5.2%. The 30-year bond yield also spiked to its highest levels since 2004. Equities, for their part, weathered the move higher well. The S & P 500 is up around 1% week to date. The Nasdaq Composite jumped nearly 2%. But for BofA technical strategist Paul Ciana, this may be the calm before the storm. US10Y YTD bar US 10-year yield in 2026 "We see parallels with 2022, when the US 10-year real yield broke out of a trading range and rose from approximately -1% to +1.5%. Around that period, the SPX, Euro and Bitcoin formed important peaks and declined, while equity, rates and FX volatility accelerated higher," Ciana wrote. "The comparison does not require an identical outcome, but we do think it argues for greater caution." Stocks entered a bear market in 2022, as the Fed quickly raised rates to fend off a massive surge in inflation. The S & P 500 fell more than 19% that year, marking its worst annual performance since 2008 — when it tumbled 38%. Ciana noted investors can hedge by scooping up put options on the SPY ETF , which tracks the S & P 500. "Investors seeking protection may consider one- to three-month SPY 750 puts or 750/730 put spreads," he said. "The lower strike corresponds to the July lows." "However, the rise in real yields is quite stretched on weekly RSIs. If yields retrace lower and positive SPX seasonals follow through, hedges may not perform," he said, referring the relative strength index, a popular indicator that helps assess whether an investment may be overbought or oversold.