By the standards of the century as a whole, 2021 will probably turn out to have been a relatively cool year. But that is not the way it has felt. Devastating floods in northern Europe and central China, a worsening water shortage in the Middle East and north Africa, and fierce forest fires in north America are just the latest evidence of the consequences of the world’s 1℃ warming, because of greenhouse gases, since pre-industrial days. And a 3℃ rise is on the cards this century even if the world keeps all its promises to curb carbon emissions. Technology can help: from techniques for building floating wind farms at sea; to a new, green way of producing air-conditioning without the noxious gases; and to efforts, led by Japan, to build a new “hydrogen society”. But even the private sector is beginning to invest in climate adaptation.
Depending on where you look, the economic recovery in rich countries is either on track or in trouble. Family finances look surprisingly strong, yet the recovery faces a number of risks. One is uncertainty about what happens when emergency fiscal measures come to an end. In America for example, there are worries about a wave of foreclosures and evictions as mortgage and rent moratoriums expire. But the biggest danger comes not from the withdrawal of stimulus, but from the Delta variant. It is so infectious that countries will struggle to vaccinate their way to the threshold of herd immunity, even after successful campaigns.
By The Economist’s estimate, some 4m Indians had died of covid-19 by the end of June. India also stands out because its economy might be said to have contracted long covid. In South-East Asia, too, the return to economic normality will be arduous. And Australia, as the Delta variant finds footholds, is moving away from normal.The world is watching England’s experiment, in lifting social-distancing rules even as the Delta variant is rampant. That was enabled by a successful vaccination drive. Kazakhstan is unlikely to be the only country to see the emergence of a market in fake vaccination documents. But globally, the willingness to get jabbed has been rising.
The pandemic has changed the nature of work. Having downed their usual tools, the bored often took up Neolithic habits, like growing food or baking bread, or more modern pastimes, such as watching Netflix. Now, as the world’s economies reopen, Netflix is sputtering. Its share price has underperformed those of the tech giants. These tech titans’ success is attracting the attention of trustbusters, who might look with misplaced envy at the powers deployed by their counterparts in China. For would-be tech giants, however, it is a golden era. The herd of “unicorns” (privately held startups valued at $1bn or more) is multiplying at a rabbit-like clip.
After a week of the worst violence since the end of apartheid, South Africa feels on the brink, and a humanitarian crisis is spreading. The proximate cause of the unrest was the jailing of Jacob Zuma for defying a court order to appear at an inquiry into vast corruption during his presidency from 2009-18. But the roots of the crisis are in over two decades of corruption and mismanagement by the ruling African National Congress, compounded by the pandemic. Lockdowns have pushed people deeper into poverty. Poor workers, nearly all of whom are not white, are almost four times as likely to have lost jobs since covid-19 arrived as higher-paid ones. For South Africa, going back to normal may not be enough.